Archive for Santa Cruz Real Estate News – Page 2

April new home purchases rose to a two-year high and durable goods orders rose by the largest margin in three months.

Unfortunately, this beacon of hope for our economy dimmed slightly after the European banking crisis again cast its shadow.

The new home sales increased 15%, the highest level since mid 2008, and orders for items expected to last more than three years went up by almost 3%, according to the Commerce Department.

Speculation is that, while large companies may help sustain the invigoration of the domestic economy, the housing sector may require a little more in the way of job growth to continue to post significant gains in the wake of the expiration of the government’s credit for home purchases closing by June 30.

In addition, although many economists expect the U.S. economy to weather the effects of European financial storms, it cannot entirely extricate itself from the fortunes of this trading block that makes up 30% of the worlds economic activity.

Just to be on the safe side, investors backed away from The 10-year Treasury note, pushing the yield up to 3.22 percent from 3.16 percent.

Long-term, however, some money managers adopt a more optimistic tone:

“Investors realized that maybe they have oversold stocks and we need to begin to rally again to reflect an improved backdrop,” said Philip Orlando, the New York-based chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors, which manages about $400 billion. “From a global perspective, we’d obviously like to see more good news out of Europe. However, we have a very optimistic view on the U.S. economic recovery.”

 

Upcoming Economic News

Later today (Thursday 5-27) – Weekly Jobless & Continuing Claims, Personal Consumption, Gross Domestic Product.

Friday (5-28) Personal Income & Spending, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, U. of Michigan Confidence.

Monday (5-31) Market Closed (Memorial Day Holiday).

Tuesday (6-01) – ISM Mfg, Construction Spending.

Wednesday (6-02) – Pending Home Sales.

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Capitola and Santa Cruz housing markets show stability, even in these uncertain times.

The tides may rise and fall, the sand on the beach shifts, accumulates, then erodes away, but the housing market in Santa Cruz and Capitola shows reassuring stability.

In fact, I see these signs not only in Capitola and Santa Cruz, but in Rio del Mar, Seascape, and Seacliff as well!

When I first took a sampling of the market conditions from the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2010 I saw what we already knew – homes have lost a large part of their value over the past three years.

Let’s take a look:

Here is a graph of the Median For Sale vs. Median Sold from Q1 2007 to Q1 2010

Here is a graph of the Median For Sale vs. Median Sold from Q1 2007 to Q1 2010

This graph shows both Santa Cruz and Capitola homes - single-family and attached - with at least 2 bedrooms and 2 baths.  We see the Median For Sale versus the Median Sold prices and find that we - like a lot of the rest of the country – have experienced a 24% drop in Median Prices.

This does not mean your home dropped 24%, it means that the price of the homes in the middle of all homes sold has gone down by that much.  This is more a reflection of which segment of the market is selling rather than an individual home’s value.

To be fair, though, values have slipped.  The million dollar home of three years ago could easily be the $800,000 home of today.

Capitola and Santa Cruz Housing Markets Show Stability

But let’s take a look at some reassuring signs.  This is where the “stability” comes in.

When a market shows declining values, we find several things:

Asking prices are way above the eventual sales prices.

Homes tend to sit on the market longer.

There are more homes coming on the market than the sales rate can absorb.

If we adjust for seasonal effects (that is, don’t look at the previous quarter as much as you look at the corresponding quarter from the previous years – Q1 to Q1, Q2 to Q2, etc.) see some very encouraging signs.

While (from the graph above) we do not see sales prices as close to asking as we have seen in the first quarter of ’07 or ’08, we do not see much of a change from last year.  This is good!  Let’s hope this is the trough that marks the markets return upward.

As far as the average Days on the Market within these parameters, these numbers have improved dramatically!  The long term average market itme for this area is around 60 days, and that is exactly what we have today.  In the first-quarter of 2007, the average was about 68 days, and in ’08 and ’09 the average got as high as 80-90 days-on-the-market!  This is a big improvement.

This shows the average number of days a home is one market before it sells. Notice how it has improved over even a year or two ago!

Some other signs of stability:

Homes under contract are at the 2007 levels and substantially higher than 2008 and 2009.

Expired listings are down

The For Sale to Sold homes ratio is roughly the same as 2007, but a marked improvement over ’08 and ’09.

Finally, the best news of all is the Supply vs. Demand data.  While it is slightly worse than 2007, it is much better loking than in the first-quarter(s) of 2008 and 2009!

This is probably the most important indicator of future Real Estate values, because herein lies the reason people will pay more for a home today than they would a year ago – more buyers are looking for fewer homes!  This affects all of the factors I mentioned earlier in this article.

In this environment, homes sell sooner, they sell for more money, and they sell at or even above the listing price.

Let’s enjoy this good news and remember why we live here!  Go and enjoy the waves and the sand between your toes.  If these trends continue, we will all breathe a little easier knowing that sunnier market conditions are ahead!

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I subscribe to a number of economic feeds from various institutions.  This one from Bank of America is one of the most accurate and concise I have found.

Here is a synopsis of the financial news of the past week:

  1. Consumer borrowing in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in March for the second time in three months, indicating Americans are becoming more optimistic about the recovery. The $2 billion rise during the month followed a revised $6.2 billion decline in February that was smaller than previously reported, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. Credit was forecast to fall $3.7 billion in March, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
  2. Confidence to finance spending may grow as more people are hired after the creation of 290,000 jobs in April, the most in four years. Consumer purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, rose at the fastest pace in three years during the first quarter, pointing to a broadening of the economy.  “Consumer spending was strong in the first quarter and looks sustainable,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said before the report. “The consumer is no longer scared of his own shadow.”
  3. Stocks fell for a fourth day on concerns the Greek debt crisis may spread in Europe. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.4 percent to 1,111.88 at 3:26 p.m. in New York.
  4. Economists had forecast consumer credit would drop from a previously reported $11.5 billion slump a month earlier, according to the median of 33 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Projections ranged from a decrease of $8.5 billion to an increase of $8 billion.
  5. Global stocks slid for a fourth day, erasing 2010 gains for U.S. benchmark indexes, and the bonds of debt-laden nations tumbled after Europe’s debt crisis spurred a U.S. equity rout yesterday that undermined confidence in trading mechanisms. Oil sank 2.5 percent to lead commodities lower. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell as much as 3 percent before paring losses to 1.8 percent at 3:31 p.m. in New York, leaving it down 0.8 percent in 2010. The MSCI World Index sank 2.4 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 3.9 percent to the lowest since November.
  6. Greece led a drop in deficit-stricken European nations’bonds, with the yield premium demanded to own the 10-year securities instead of benchmark German bunds rising to a record of more than 9.65 percentage points. Credit-default swaps on European banks surged to an all-time high. Regulators are reviewing a plunge that briefly wiped out more than $1 trillion in U.S. market value yesterday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid almost 1,000 points before paring losses.
  7. Concern over the integrity of the Trading Mechanisms that caused the volatility overshadowed the biggest growth in U.S. jobs in four years.
  8. Equities today pared earlier losses amid speculation the European Central Bank will announce measures to stem the region’s debt crisis.

And, the quote of the week:

“The market is manic,” said Philip Orlando, the New York- based chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors, which manages about $400  billion. “The ECB needs to step in here and do something. If that really becomes true, we start to rally and focus on the terrific jobs report we had this morning.  They could have solved this six months ago. There’s still a lot of concern about contagion. Investors are scared to death.”

That’s all for this week – have a terrific weekend!

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On April 30, the Federal Government ended their Homebuyer Tax Credit.  But just because they took away the punch bowl doesn’t mean our little party has to come to a screeching halt!  We can make OUR OWN interest rate and tax credit stimulus plan.

In an excellent article in You Magazine, national mortgage expert Jim McMahan (Director of Training and Education at LoanToolbox, a company that advises mortgage professionals), describes how the terms of the purchase contract can be structured in such a way as to save the Buyer thousands of dollars, get a lower rate, and provide a tax incentive at the same time.

What I found interesting is the fact that a recent survey showed most Buyers feel lower rates are more important than a tax credit in helping them decide to buy.    

In fact, 65% said the end of the tax credit will have NO EFFECT on their interest in purchasing a home!  It’s the lower rates that is bringing them into the market for homes.

The article goes on to say what good negotiators have known for a long time – there are many ways to purchase a home with dramatically differing effects on downpayment, monthly payment, and tax credits.

While most Buyers focus only on the purchase price, that is only one of the factors in a well-negotiated contract.

Read the article – it is full of valuable tips for buying a home.  These things are good to know whether you use them of not!

As usual, you need to involve people who have experience in structuring these types of deals and, before you count your tax refund dollars, you should contact your tax professional about your particular situation.

Shashank Shekhar at Argus Financial, my friend who sent the article to me, is well aware of the ways to use financing to tailor a transaction to your personal needs – and knows which kinds of properties will allow it.

Here is an excerpt from the article itself.  It shows you how Seller credits can be used to provide tax reduction to you!

However, one aspect of this situation not often considered is that the IRS treats points paid up front to lower a mortgage interest rate as pre-paid interest, regardless of who pays the fees. This means that when buyers negotiate to have the seller pay the costs to lower their interest rate, they receive the benefit of deducting them on their income taxes in the year the home is purchased.

If the costs to reduce the interest rate are 2.00% to obtain a lower interest rate, the $5,400 in this scenario, 2.00% of $270,000, would be deductible as pre-paid interest, netting additional money back to the buyer at tax time.

Pretty good, huh?

I have used these types of contract options to help not only first-time Buyers, but on my own properties as well.  It is all about addressing your partucular needs, whether it is monthly payment, down payment, or getting help with repairs.

Now, we can go out there and make our own “Stimulus Package” -  and it won’t get bogged down in Congress!

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